Market Commentary: Tuesday, February 18/25

Transcript

Hog futures are trading higher at midday as the market's technical support remains unwavering. Subtle losses are seen consistently throughout this morning's pork cutout report, but with the belly's $5.71 decline it's no wonder that the carcass price is indeed lower.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are unreported, the morning cutout value is lower.

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending Feb 21, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.28/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.41/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.19/kg dressed. This is Pat Matthezing reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider…

     The latest monthly US meat trade data recorded a moderate increase in pork exports, up 2.3 million pounds for a monthly tally of 645.8 million pounds for December. The latest pork exports are up 2.0m pounds compared to a year earlier, and brings the 2024 calendar year up 297.3m pounds or +4.4% over 2023. 

     Many major destinations for US pork recorded decreased quantities in the month of December. US pork to Colombia and Japan were both down more than 11 million pounds on the month, however exports to Colombia were up 3.1m pounds compared to last December and up 90.2m pounds on the year while exports to Japan were 9.7m pounds lower than the previous December and tallied 17.2m pounds under 2023. US pork to Canada typically drops significantly from November into December with this year no exception, falling 9.7m pounds on the month, bringing exports to the country down 1.4m pounds under a year earlier and 2024 exports 27.8m pounds under 2023. For comparison, the US imported 13.5m pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country in the month of December. Notably the Dominican Republic also recorded a significant move lower, down 7.8m pounds from the previous month and 5.3m lbs under year-ago levels to bring the 2024 tally 8.5m pounds under 2023. US pork to China* (including Hong Kong & Taiwan) was down 1.8m pounds overall from November quantities but up 16.9m pounds compared to a year earlier and 71.1m pounds under 2023. 

     To counter the declines recorded across many major destinations for US pork were rises to countries such as Panama, Mexico, South Korea, and more moderately - Australia. US pork to Panama surged 24.4m pounds on the month, a move that is typical annually in December though forged a new historical high surpassing the previous high reached with 19.9m in December 2023, ending up 9.2m pounds compared to a year earlier and 18.9m above 2023. US pork to Mexico rose 19.0m pounds in December, down a modest 591 thousand pounds compared to a year earlier but up 95.0m pounds compared to 2023, while South Korea rose 12.6m pounds from November however was 17.4m pounds below last December but 70.9m pounds over 2023. US pork to Australia increased 5.5m pounds on the month, down a modest 388 thousand compared to a year earlier but up 63.3m pounds over 2023.

  February 11, 2025


  
 
  
 

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hogs varied during the week with days early in the week going unreported, mid-week reporting notable improvements ($1-nearly $3/cwt higher daily) and Friday pulling back significantly ($3-$4/cwt lower). National cash averaged $2.93/cwt higher while regional cash averaged $2.22/cwt above the previous week. CME cash continues to improve daily, up generally steady throughout to average $1.94/cwt above last week's average. Wholesale pork primals were again primarily higher with bellies up a notable +6.5%, driving US pork cutout up +1.7% or $1.61 higher to $95.01 US/cwt from the week previous.



Weekly Canadian hog prices generally improved $4.50-$5.50 per hog from a week earlier, excluding BP4/TC4 pricing which were up $2.55/hog. Hylife hogs improved $4.45/hog, while hogs out of the east (Ontario & Quebec) were each up shy of $5/hog and the ML Sig 4 rose $5.25/hog. Both the OlyW 20 & OlyW 21 R2 rose $5.50/hog from last reported. In the US, Tyson hogs were up $3.55/hog while JM hogs improved $4.60/hog from the week previous.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins strengthened on improved hog values. Feed costs were up moderately with Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs climbing $0.45/hog higher while those out of the monitored US region were up $0.75/hog from a week earlier.

Ontario hog margins strengthened $4.45 to shy of $34/hog profits, followed by margins out of Hylife which rose $4 to $33.15/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins strengthened $4.80 to $32.75/hog profits out of Brandon and $28.50/hog profits out of Lethbridge. OlyW 20 margins rose $5.10 to $31/hog profits while margins out of Quebec improved $4.35 to $27.80/hog profits and the OlyW 21 R2 strengthened $5.05 to nearly $19/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $2.80 to $40.60/hog profits while JM margins rose $3.85 to $36.70/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 40.58 USD X 1.4373 = $ 58.33 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 36.69 USD X 1.4373 = $ 52.73 in Canadian Dollars




Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.