Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider…

        The latest US Cold Storage numbers reported pork stocks at 410.2 million pounds for January, up +3.5% or 13.7m pounds from December which was revised -1.0% lower from 400.4m to 396.5m pounds. Compared to a year earlier, the latest pork stocks were down -11.5% or  53.1m pounds lower as most pork categories fell below year-ago levels.
 
         Total ham stocks rose 11.6m pounds or +17.0% due to a surge in the boneless variety in January, and were up 5.1m pounds or +6.8% from a year earlier. Bellies in cold storage jumped +23.9% or 8.2m pounds from December but recorded the greatest year-over-year decline in the latest data, falling -32.3% or 20.1m pounds under last year. Spare-ribs were up 4.8m pounds from previously reported and 2.3m over last year, while trimmings rose 5.5m pounds into December and was 2.2m pounds over a year earlier. Spare-ribs increased +4.1% or 3.3m pounds for January, down 3.3m pounds or -3.8% compared to a year earlier, while trimmings climbed 1.2m pounds or +2.5% from December and were +4.5% or 2.1m pounds over last year, and bone-in picnics were up 461 thousand pounds or +7.1% for the latest month and 1.2m pounds or +21.5% over a year earlier.
 
         The category accounting for 'Other Pork' fell 4.5m pounds or -11.2% in January to bring year-over-year supplies down -26.5% or 12.8m pounds lower than Jan'24. Butts were down 2.5m pounds or -11.3% from December and -2.2% or 443 thousand pounds under a year earlier, while unclassified pork fell 2.0m pounds or -5.5% on the month and -24.% or 11.1m pounds under a year earlier, and variety meats declined -5.3% or 1.2m pounds for January and -18.7% or 5.1m pounds under last year. Total loins edged 843 thousand pounds lower or -2.4% and -20.2% or 8.6m pounds under year-ago stocks, largely due to reduced bone-in loin supplies.
 
            Competing meats in cold storage were also recorded higher on the month but lower than last year. Total beef in cold storage was up +2.2% or 9.9m pounds from December stocks but -0.3% or 1.3m pounds under last year's supplies, while total chicken (including broilers, fryers & roasters as well as chicken cuts) were up +0.4% or 3.5m pounds from December but -3.1% or 25.7m pounds under a year earlier. 

  March 4, 2025

Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hogs declined much of the week and was unreported Tuesday. The weekly average national cash fell $0.65/cwt to $89.91/cwt, while regional cash was down $1.69-$1.90/cwt to more than $89/cwt. CME cash was also primarily lower with early-week declines down more heavily, weighing the weekly CME cash $0.99/cwt lower to $89.49/cwt. Wholesale pork primals were higher overall, excluding a -4.9% drop in ham values, bringing US pork cutout +0.3% or $0.31 higher to $98.02 US/cwt from a week earlier.

Canadian hog prices generally fell on the week, excluding some of the markets derived from lagged base pricing. Quebec hogs dropped the most, falling $9.45/hog from previously reported. Hylife hogs were down $1.60/hog, while those out of Ontario and off the ML Sig 4 were each down $0.65/hog. The OlyW 21 R2 was down $1.50/hog. while the OlyW 20 improved $3.10/hog and BP4/TC4 rose $7.20/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs were up $3.15/hog while JM hogs fell $3.50/hog from the week previous.

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored hog margins primarily improved due to a reduction in feed costs, which recorded notable declines on the week. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs fell $2.30/hog while those out of the monitored US region were down $1.65/hog from a week earlier.

Ontario hog margins improved $1.65 to $52/hog profits, followed by margins off the OlyW 20 which strengthened $5.40 to $51.15/hog profits. ML Sig 4 margins were up $1.65 to $48.10/hog profits out of Brandon and $44/hog profits out of Lethbridge, while Hylife margins improved $0.70 to $46.25/hog profits. Hog margins out of Quebec weakened $7.10 to $35.30/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins were up $0.80 to $34.10/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins strengthened $4.75 to $56/hog profits while JM margins weakened $1.90 to $46.10/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 55.98 USD X 1.4342 = $ 80.29 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 46.11 USD X 1.4342 = $ 66.13 in Canadian Dollars

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.