Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The USDA's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, September 26th. Hog inventories in the near-term were reported higher than market analyst's pre-report estimates, however lighter weight pigs and farrowings were notably lower.

All Hogs & Pigs came out higher than pre-report estimates, increasing 1.994 million head higher or +2.7% from June's tally and bringing current inventories 367 thousand head or up +0.5% from a year earlier.

Market hog categories were reported mixed with nearby weights higher than a year ago, rising +2.2% for 180 pounds and over, and 120-170 pounds at 3.5% above year ago levels. Lighter weight categories came in 98.7% and 98.5% of 2023 levels for the same period a year earlier.

Kept for breeding aligned with market expectations, rising 0.6% from the previous quarter and -2.2% under a year earlier.

The Jun-Aug pig crop was expected lower, and came out -0.8% over year ago levels, and pigs per litter reached the highest recorded to date at 11.72 for the June-August period.

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2023 through June 2024 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.0 percent. A revision of 0.3 percent was made to the March 2024-May 2024 pig crop. A net revision of 0.2 percent was made to the March 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory. The net revision made to the December 2023-February 2024 pig crop was 1.8 percent.

  October 1, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were mixed this week with regional markets adding roughly $0.70 US per cwt while National Prices dropped but only within $0.30 US per cwt. CME cash was narrowly lower ending the week 25 cents off of the prior Friday's close. Wholesale pork primals were also extremely steady on the week with US pork cutout unchanged over the previous 5 days.

Canadian hog markets were mostly lower week over week with most regions recording losses between $0.50-$3.00 per hog .     ML Sig 4 dropped $1.58/hog, Hylife recorded a decline of $1.28 and Olymel prices were both lower by $0.40 (OlyW21)and $1.867 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs dropped $0.82/hog while JM hogs edged lower by $2.08/hog adding to recent weakness in the Midwest market.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were lower again by the end of the week with most Western regions recording seasonal declines of $2-$3 per hog while Eastern markets were lower from $2.07 to $2.91 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs increased fractionally by only $0.68/hog.  Hog margins seasonally are likely to continue their decline as hog prices have more of an influence on margin compared to feed prices.  Feed costs for Canadian farrow to finish or farrow to wean producers is not expected to change much from now until the end of the year as most of the harvest has been complete in many parts of Canada.

Ontario hog margins were lower down $2.91 to $30.51/hog, ML Sig 4 margins were down $2.26 to $31.20/hog profits. Hylife margins slipped $1.96 to $26.59/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins weakened $2.35 to $31.24/hog profits, while Quebec hog margins were down $1.45 to $25.93 per hog.  OlyW 21 weakened the least due to a lag in hog pricing dropping $1.08 to $23.56/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins dropped $1.47 to $31.52/hog profits while JM margins were slightly higher by $1.45 at $25.93/hog profits.
 

 US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 31.52 USD X 1.3483 = $ 42.50 in Canadian Dollars 
• Morrell: $ 25.93 USD X 1.3483 = $ 34.96 in Canadian Dollars 

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

Lean hog futures have performed relatively well over the course of the last month as forward contracts reached their highest values since the start of June 2024.  December 2024, April 2025 and June 2025 hit 4-month highs after the market recorded a bottom around July 15^th.  The last 10 weeks have offered optimism for hedgers looking for an opportunity to reduce exposure risk for the 4^th quarter of 2024 and first of 2025.

December lean hog futures reached a 4-month high of $75.80 US per cwt on Sep 24^th bringing the weekly average to within the top value of the past 5 years for this week.  Only in 2021 were December hogs higher during this week of trade.  Seasonally as shown in the 5-year Daily graph for December hogs, all 5 years Dec hogs fell in value from early October to expiry of the Dec contract.  

  September 24, 2024

 December Lean Hogs 2024

April Lean Hogs 2025

June Lean Hogs 2025

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were mostly lower to start the week with select markets picking up strength Thursday limiting losses.      CME cash was narrowly higher ending the week within 50 cents of the prior Friday's close. Wholesale pork primals were also extremely steady on the week with US pork cutout down only $0.08/cwt over the previous 5 days.

Canadian hog markets were mostly lower week over week with most regions recording losses between $2.00-$3.00 per hog with the exception of BP/TC which only edged lower due to the week lag in pricing.     ML Sig 4 dropped nearly $4.50/hog, Hylife recorded a decline of $1.47 and Olymel prices were both lower by $3.00 (OlyW21)and $1.89 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs gained $1.51/hog while JM hogs edged lower by $0.50/hog adding to recent weakness in the Midwest market.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were lower by the end of the week with most Western regions recording seasonal declines of $2-$4 per hog while Eastern marekts were lower from $1.30 to $3.10 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs inceased fractionally by only $0.34/hog as losses in the grain sector were offset by slight gains in the protein markets which was the opposite from the week prior.  Hog margins seasonally tend to decline thru the 3rd and fourth quarter impacted more by lower hog prices versus changing feed values.

Ontario hog margins were lower down $3.10 to $33.42/hog, ML Sig 4 margins were down $3.83 to $33.46/hog profits. Hylife margins slipped $2.08 to $28.56.64/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins weakened $2.23 to $33.59/hog profits, while Quebec hog margins were the least impacted this week down $1.38 to $26.30 per hog.  OlyW 21 weakened $3.34 to $23.64/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins gained $1.32 to $32.96/hog profits while JM margins were slightly lower by $0.70 at $24.48/hog profits.
 

 US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $ 32.81 USD X 1.3581 = $ 44.56 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $ 24.33 USD X 1.3581 = $ 33.04 in Canadian Dollars 

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.