Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest monthly US livestock and meat trade data recorded pork exports at 582.8 million pounds, up 33.6m pounds from September. The month-over-month rise in US pork exports reflects a surge in increased quantities sent to Mexico, China and South Korea, at a time when they typically reduce their imports of US pork. Current pork exports for Oct are up 10.6m pounds from a year earlier, bringing them 259.3m pounds or +4.7% over last year-to-date. 

US pork to Mexico climbed 17.4m pounds from previously reported monthly numbers, with current exports -10.4m pounds below a year earlier but 98.0m above last year-to-date. US pork to China* (including Hong Kong & Taiwan) was up 5.8m pounds overall from Sep quantities and is 17.0m pounds above a year earlier and 107.6m pounds under last year-to-date. US pork to Colombia decreased 2.1m pounds from last year and is -1.0m pounds below last year-to-date and a significant 77.6m pounds (36%) over last year-to-date.

Strong year to date exports (+4.7%) have been a significant underlying support factor for pork cutout and resulting US cash hog bids.  Expectations are for pork exports to continue strong into the end of the year based on current weekly reported commitments.

  December 10, 2024

                        

 



Weekly Hog Price Recap

US cash hog prices were mostly lower with regional markets recording losses between $1-2 per cwt with exception of select regions which showed minor gains however did not report all days over the week skewing the data. The national pm 5-day average closed -$1.58 US per cwt lower, down 1.8%. CME cash was lower dropping $1.40 per cwt on the weekly average. Wholesale pork primal cuts registered a small loss, slipping $0.60 US/cwt, or 0.7% below the week earlier. Friday over Friday however pork cutout values were higher indicating continued strength in pork demand.


 

Most Canadian hog prices were again lower but remain above historical values. The Canadian dollar returned to negative trade this week lifting the exchange rate slightly limiting some of the weakness. ML Sig 4 registered losses of -$4.07/hog from the week prior, Hylife prices were also lower slipping -$3.54 and Olymel prices were both lower by -$5.91 (OlyW21) and -$5.00 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs were higher gaining $1.17/hog while JM hogs edged slightly higher by $0.58 US/hog.

 

 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were significantly lower this week as the lower cash hogs were paired with a sharp increase in feed costs. Western regions recorded a change ranging from -$10.99 to -$13.36 per hog while Eastern markets were lower from -$10.77 to -$11.22 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs were sharply higher as grain prices rallied on newly released supply estimates and gains in the CAN/US Exchange Rate.

Ontario hog margins were lower slipping -$11.22 at $31.12/hog, ML Sig 4 (MB) margins were down -$11.52 to $30.12/hog profits. HyLife margins were lower down -$10.99 to $31.12/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins were lower by -$12.45, while Quebec hog margins were also hit with a loss of -$10.77 to $15.11 per hog.     OlyW 21 lost -$13.36 to $16.31/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins were slightly negative over the week dropping -$1.03 while JM margins were lower by -$1.62 at $41.53 US/hog profits.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 44.61 USD X 1.4070 = $ 62.77 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 41.53 USD X 1.4070 = $ 58.43 in Canadian Dollars 




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