Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The USDA's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, September 26th. Hog inventories in the near-term were reported higher than market analyst's pre-report estimates, however lighter weight pigs and farrowings were notably lower.

All Hogs & Pigs came out higher than pre-report estimates, increasing 1.994 million head higher or +2.7% from June's tally and bringing current inventories 367 thousand head or up +0.5% from a year earlier.

Market hog categories were reported mixed with nearby weights higher than a year ago, rising +2.2% for 180 pounds and over, and 120-170 pounds at 3.5% above year ago levels. Lighter weight categories came in 98.7% and 98.5% of 2023 levels for the same period a year earlier.

Kept for breeding aligned with market expectations, rising 0.6% from the previous quarter and -2.2% under a year earlier.

The Jun-Aug pig crop was expected lower, and came out -0.8% over year ago levels, and pigs per litter reached the highest recorded to date at 11.72 for the June-August period.

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2023 through June 2024 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.0 percent. A revision of 0.3 percent was made to the March 2024-May 2024 pig crop. A net revision of 0.2 percent was made to the March 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory. The net revision made to the December 2023-February 2024 pig crop was 1.8 percent.


  October 1, 2024

 


Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs were mixed this week with regional markets adding roughly $0.70 US per cwt while National Prices dropped but only within $0.30 US per cwt. CME cash was narrowly lower ending the week 25 cents off of the prior Friday's close. Wholesale pork primals were also extremely steady on the week with US pork cutout unchanged over the previous 5 days.


 

Canadian hog markets were mostly lower week over week with most regions recording losses between $0.50-$3.00 per hog .     ML Sig 4 dropped $1.58/hog, Hylife recorded a decline of $1.28 and Olymel prices were both lower by $0.40 (OlyW21)and $1.867 (OlyW20). In the US, Tyson hogs dropped $0.82/hog while JM hogs edged lower by $2.08/hog adding to recent weakness in the Midwest market.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins were lower again by the end of the week with most Western regions recording seasonal declines of $2-$3 per hog while Eastern markets were lower from $2.07 to $2.91 per hog. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs increased fractionally by only $0.68/hog.  Hog margins seasonally are likely to continue their decline as hog prices have more of an influence on margin compared to feed prices.  Feed costs for Canadian farrow to finish or farrow to wean producers is not expected to change much from now until the end of the year as most of the harvest has been complete in many parts of Canada.

Ontario hog margins were lower down $2.91 to $30.51/hog, ML Sig 4 margins were down $2.26 to $31.20/hog profits. Hylife margins slipped $1.96 to $26.59/hog profits and OlyW 20 hog margins weakened $2.35 to $31.24/hog profits, while Quebec hog margins were down $1.45 to $25.93 per hog.  OlyW 21 weakened the least due to a lag in hog pricing dropping $1.08 to $23.56/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins dropped $1.47 to $31.52/hog profits while JM margins were slightly higher by $1.45 at $25.93/hog profits.
 

 

 US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 31.52 USD X 1.3483 = $ 42.50 in Canadian Dollars 
  • Morrell: $ 25.93 USD X 1.3483 = $ 34.96 in Canadian Dollars 



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