Market Commentary: Wednesday, March 27/24

Transcript

Hog futures are trading mixed at midday with the deferred contracts trading lower; the market hasn't seen enough fundamental support today to push all contracts higher. The hog complex hopes to find a positive outlook in Thursday's market as the export sales report and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be shared. It's surprising traders are as confident as they are since pork cutout values closed lower yesterday afternoon and are lower again this morning.

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is also lower.

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday.

For the week ending Mar 29, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.03/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.16/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.02/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

US retail pork prices for February were generally lower from the month previous and under year-ago prices. Bacon prices fell -0.8% to $6.56/lb which is -0.5% under last year, while chops declined -1.9% in the latest data to $4.16/lb and is -2.3% under year-ago prices, and the category accounting for 'all other pork' fell -1.2% from January prices to $3.56/lb which is -0.7% under year-ago prices. Retail hams increased in February, up +2.4% to $4.52/lb from the previous month and +3.4% over a year earlier.

Monthly wholesale pork values improved overall from January into February. US pork cutout at $89.14/cwt increased +2.5% on the month and +8.3% over year-ago values. Wholesale ribs surged +15.2% from a month earlier and is +24.6% over last year, while bellies were up +3.6% for February and +28.4% over a year earlier. Wholesale hams increased +3.5% on the month but is a modest +0.1% over last year, while butts improved +2.5% from the previous month and +7.3% over last year and loins edged +0.4% higher on the month and is +2.2% over last year. Wholesale picnics were the only primal to record lower month-over-month values, falling -5.8% from January but +0.6% over year-ago values.

Monthly US retail beef prices were modestly higher overall: Uncooked ground edged +0.1% to $5.48/lb which is +5.2% over last year, and roasts were up +1.1% to $7.35/lb bringing them +7.8% over a year earlier, while steaks fell -1.5% to $10.53/lb which is +8.8% over a year earlier. All other beef (not veal) climbed +0.7% to $6.97/lb and is +6.9% over year-ago prices. 

Wholesale beef values generally improved in February, with choice cutout up +2.1% to $296.90/cwt and was +7.5% over a year earlier, while select cutout was up +3.9% on the month to $286.57/cwt and +9.0% over last year.

US retail broiler prices at $2.37/lb for February fell -2.0% on the month and is -1.8% under a year earlier. 

Wholesale broiler values improved +3.2% from a month earlier to $1.00/lb which is +12.5% over last year.

  March 19, 2024

  
 

 



Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs started the week modestly lower, however improved throughout the week thereafter with the strongest rises recorded mid-week. CME cash continues to improve daily, with most rises considered modest except a considerable increase recorded mid-week. Wholesale pork primal values improved overall, except hams which slipped -2.9%, with US pork cutout up $1.13/cwt from the week previous.



Monitored hog markets generally improved another $1-$3 per hog on the week, with exception to hog values out of Quebec which slipped $1/hog. ML Sig 4 hogs climbed $0.70/hog, while the OlyW 21 was up $1.10/hog and Hylife improved $1.25/hog. Hogs out of Ontario were up $1.80/hog, while BP4/TC4 rose $2.55/hog and the OlyW 20 improved $2.75/hog. In the US, Tyson hogs rose $5/hog while JM hog values were up closer to $5.50/hog from a week earlier.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Most monitored hog margins strengthened on continued improvements in hog values, though were tempered by a moderate rise in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs increased $0.60/hog, while those in the monitored US region climbed $0.50/hog from the week previous.


ML Sig 4 hog margins edged $0.10 higher to $17.70/hog profits on the week, followed by margins out of Ontario which strengthened $1.20 to $17.20/hog profits. Hylife margins improved $1.20 to $14.80/hog profits, while OlyW 20 hog margins strengthened $2.20 to $14.75/hog profits. OlyW 21 margins climbed $0.50 to $7.20/hog profits, while hog margins out of Quebec weakened $1.55 to $7/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $4.50 to $23.55/hog profits while JM margins strengthened $5 to shy of $20/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $23.53 USD X 1.3501 = $31.77 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $19.89 USD X 1.3501 = $26.85 in Canadian Dollars



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